This moderately complex spell allows you to determine the likely success or failure of any particular course of action, particularly in the short term.
This one was the first of the second level spells I learned how to cast when I became a cleric, because I knew how very vital it is to the health of a community. Yeah, Resist Fire might impress folks as you walk across those coals, but really, kids. How often do you need that?
Discerning the path of greatest grace and promise for any gathering is a central function of any cleric of level eight or above. If you're in that position of giving guidance to a fellowship, and you can't Augur, you're all in for a world of hurt.
And frankly, many clerics who find themselves looked upon for leadership choose to skip this spell. Instead, they assume...from the foundation of their own ego...to assume that whatever path they've decided is right must be the right one.
Because Augury is not a spell that's about power. It's about listening to what God has said and will say.
Casting this one is demanding, because it requires a strong subset of skills. Low or moderate wisdom scores mean you're pretty much out of luck with this casting, as does any intelligence under thirteen. Yeah, they don't say that in the handbook, but I've watched folks flail horribly at this. If you can't integrate new knowledge easily and you're the sort of person who makes the same mistakes over and over again, Augury will probably fall flat for you.
I've also found an inverse relationship between the success of this spell and the charisma of the caster. This is probably just correlation rather than causation, because I think when you're used to charming others into doing what you want, you tend to get overly reliant on that skillset.
Augury, with its intense demands on wisdom and intelligence, tends to be an ability set that favors those who've spent their lives watching and observing and growing. The broader your set of experiences, and more intentionally you've developed yourself as a person and a walker of the Way, the more accurate you'll be as you attempt to cast this spell.
So how do you cast it? It's a spell that demands self-opening practices. That means contemplation and stillness, but it also engages you as a person. You listen. You pay attention. You open your mind, and engage the entirety of your experience and learnings against the problem that is facing you.
You pay particular attention to those whose wisdom is written in the Manual, those prophets and sages whose guidance is part of our Sacred Book. You also pay particular attention to those whose wisdom is proven and that you respect. You look for everything that meaningfully provides input into the likelihood of a particular outcome.
Thomas Bayes, the Presbyterian cleric who founded the Bayesian School of Augury (now the dominant form of practice in this field) called this attention to those things you can observe "determining the priors." Because in Augury, what has been spoken into being by our Maker holds the key to determining the probability of what might be. Most of the possibility of success and the likelihood of failure are already etched into the real.
Sounding the problem against all of these things, you still yourself and prepare to receive your answer.
If you are listening, it will come.
And that's the rub, and the reason why so many clerics overlook this one. The answer may not be what you want. It may challenge your sense of self. It may require you to back down from a strongly set course. Casting this spell is not kind to your ego.
Take, for example, an unfortunate incident in my local Cleric's Conclave from a few years back. The decision was made to move one of our training and meditation fortifications from one location to a new location. Everyone was eager and excited, so much so that only one Cleric would regularly bother to stand up in the Conclave and report the results of his Augur cast. He'd done that sort of thing before, so his grasp of the Bayesian priors were strong, and his Augury spell was potent.
We'd borrowed gold from several goblin tribes and the local thieves guild to finance the building of it, and we'd built it far away from our supply lines. That bold Cleric called it out, but pretty much no-one seemed to be paying attention. We were too fixated on the future we were sure would happen.
When the goblin armies arrived on masse to take back their gold with interest, well, we weren't ready. It was a rout. They sacked the new fort, sacked the old fort, and then demanded and received tribute that nearly destroyed our Conclave.
We'd allowed ourselves to be convinced that there was just one possible future. This is a mistaken assumption about the Material Plane, and a mistaken assumption about God. Neither is as rigid or linear as we might like to think.
God will let us screw up. Our Maker will give us all of the signs, and give us the ability to read them, and will allow us to Augur the best future and choose to act on that knowledge.
But if we choose not to do so, then we're going down, as surely as if we'd been hit with Spiritual Hammer.
Augury. Use it. Or not. But really, use it.
